Trend
of Decelerating Church Growth Continues
The year-end 2001 statistical report, given in the Saturday
afternoon session of LDS General Conference on April 6, 2002, demonstrates some
concerning trends. Most strikingly, the increase of children of record of
69,522 is down from 81,450 last year, and is lower than any increase of
children record reported for at least 12 years. For comparison, the increase in
LDS children of record in 1982 was 124,000. 69,522 represents only 0.6% of the
11.394 million members worldwide. When one compares this to the annual world
population growth rate of 1.55%-1.73%, it is clear that this represents one of
the lowest rates of increase in membership of any faith by natural birth. The
annual population growth rate among Muslim groups is as high as 2.2-2.5%. It
should also be kept in mind that these are net growth rates accounting for
deaths as well as births, making the low gross LDS growth rate through children
of record even more striking. Much of this low growth rate is related to the
fact that only about one-third of the 11.3 million LDS member worldwide are
active. However, even if all inactives were excluded in the calculation of
growth rate, LDS growth through the baptism of children of record would still
be equal to or less than the world population growth rate. Active LDS in the US
do have one more child on average than other predominately Northern European US
groups (Latinos and African-Americans still have more children than LDS), but
LDS members in Mexico actually average fewer children than the Mexican average.
This is also true in most of the world outside of the US, in large part because
the rate of temple marriages outside the U.S. is so low: below 2% for LDS
adults in Latin America and most of the rest of the world, compared to as many
as 55% of LDS adults in Utah. The minimal increase in the number of
currently-serving missionaries from 60,784 at year-end 2000 to 60,850 at year
end 2001 (+66, or 0.108% increase) reflects the crisis of low LDS birth rates
with proportionately fewer young men and women arriving at mission age.
Declining increases in church
units reflect the general malaise in LDS Church growth. The report cites 26084
wards and branches at year-end 2001, an increase of 169 (0.65%) from the
end-year 2000 total of 25,915, and 2607 stakes, an increase of only 26 stakes
(1%) from 2581 in 2000. The number of districts actually decreased by three
(-0.5%) from 621 to 618. This finding of low increases in numbers of church
units does not represent an isolated event, but the continuation of a pattern
of declining unit growth rates over the past decade. As wards and branches
require active, contributing members in order to be viable, ward and branch
growth may represent a more meaninful indicator of the actual strength and
growth of the Church than raw membership numbers. At present, the world
population is growing 2.5 times more rapidly than the number of LDS wards and
branches organized to reach them.
On a positive note, there were
292,612 convert baptisms last year. This is up from a many-year low of 273,973
in 2000. However, this number of convert baptisms is still lower than the
number of converts baptized in 9 of 10 years during the 1990s. Only 1992 had
fewer convert baptisms. Net LDS growth for 2001 was 2.94%, less than one-third
of the growth rate of the Seventh Day Adventist Church, the Assemblies of God,
and many other faiths for the same period.
Source: Cumorah News Service
http://www.cumorah.com/cgi-bin/news.cgi?Headline=trend+decelerating+church+growth
4/19/03
12:57:24 PM
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